One World ABC Seminar: Ruth Baker
on the July 16, 2020
at 11:30 am [UK time]
For this eighth session of the One World ABC Seminar, Chris Drovandi from University of Oxford will talk about "Multi-fidelity Approximate Bayesian computation"
Inspired by the "One World Probability Seminar", we decided to run The One World ABC Seminar, a weekly/fortnightly series of seminars that will take place on Blackboard Collaborate on Thursdays at 11.30am [UK time]. The idea is to gather members and disseminate results and innovation during these weeks and months under lockdown.
Ruth Baker
Abstract
A vital stage in the mathematical modelling of real-world systems is to calibrate a model’sparameters to observed data. Likelihood-free parameter inference methods, such as Ap-proximate Bayesian Computation, build Monte Carlo samples of the uncertain parameterdistribution by comparing the data with large numbers of model simulations. However, thecomputational expense of generating these simulations forms a significant bottleneck in thepractical application of such methods. We identify how simulations of cheap, low-fidelitymodels have been used separately in two complementary ways to reduce the computationalexpense of building these samples, at the cost of introducing additional variance to the re-sulting parameter estimates. We explore how these approaches can be unified so that costand benefit are optimally balanced, and we characterise the optimal choice of how oftento simulate from cheap, low-fidelity models in place of expensive, high-fidelity models inMonte Carlo ABC algorithms. The resulting early accept/reject multifidelity ABC algo-rithm that we propose is shown to give improved performance over existing multifidelity andhigh-fidelity approaches.
Published on July 6, 2020